Recent National Weather Service model runs and regional guidance for the Sichuan Basin show Chengdu's August 16 maximum likely peaking near 33–35 °C under persistent influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, which maintains warm, humid southwesterly flow. Scattered thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours could cap daytime temperatures through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological patterns where August highs average 30–34 °C but occasionally spike higher. Official China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble outputs will be the resolution source, with any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or steering flow able to move the verified high by 1–2 °C before the 16th. Trader sentiment therefore clusters around the mid-30s range, reflecting both seasonal norms and short-term convective uncertainty.