Recent Met Office guidance and model consensus indicate a transition to fresher but still mild conditions over southern England by August 16, with high pressure maintaining light winds and limited cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup, following an unusually warm and settled early August, supports overnight lows in central London typically settling near 16–18°C, consistent with urban heat-island effects that add 1–3°C above rural values. Ensemble forecasts show only modest spread, keeping the probability of a dip to 15°C or lower below 12% while capping upside risk above 19°C. No significant Atlantic frontal systems are expected to arrive in time to alter the thermal profile before the market resolves.