Recent model guidance from multiple sources clusters Chengdu’s maximum temperature for August 15 near 34–37 °C, directly supporting the market’s tight distribution with 36 °C holding the highest implied probability at 26.5 % and 37 °C at 23 %. The Sichuan Basin’s typical summer pattern—driven by the western Pacific subtropical high and persistent warm, moist southwesterly flow—normally produces highs of 30–34 °C, but occasional clear-sky periods or delayed precipitation can push readings one or two degrees higher. Small differences in forecast timing of clouds or showers, plus normal model spread, keep the 35–38 °C outcomes closely matched and explain why probabilities remain dispersed rather than concentrated on a single bin ahead of final verification.