Recent forecasts from major meteorological agencies indicate a daily maximum near 31–32°C in Beijing on August 15, supported by moderate southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers that temper peak heating. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on boundary-layer moisture and timing of any convective activity, which could suppress or briefly enhance surface temperatures by a degree or two. Urban heat-island effects and high humidity further narrow the range, keeping probabilities clustered around 31–33°C while discounting extremes above 34°C or below 30°C. Updated model runs and official guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds.