Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Москве 15 августа?
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 20%
18°C 7%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
26%
20°C
45%
21°C
20%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 20%
18°C 7%
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
26%
20°C
45%
21°C
20%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a Moscow maximum of 19–20 °C for August 15, driven by moderate high pressure, partly cloudy skies, and light northwesterly winds that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 19 °C and 20 °C. Ensemble spread remains narrow given the two-day lead time, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak by 1 °C. Historical August averages near 22 °C provide context, but current model guidance favors the lower end of the typical range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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