Forecast ensembles from major centers like the ECMWF and GFS currently cluster maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 15 around 29–32 °C under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, producing the tightest market probabilities at 31 °C and 30 °C. Day-to-day variability stems from small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage that could shave a degree or two from peak heating. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C with occasional excursions above 30 °C when high pressure builds, yet the narrow two-day lead time keeps resolution sensitive to the next model cycle and surface observations. Traders are weighting the consensus mode while discounting tails below 28 °C or above 33 °C absent stronger signals of anomalous warmth or persistent overcast.