Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD at 17-18 percent, nearly double its 9.1 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. INSA, Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveys from early to mid-September all show the party in this narrow band, behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the SPD and Greens. Gains track broader national momentum for the AfD amid immigration and economic concerns, yet Berlin’s urban, liberal electorate and the other parties’ refusal to cooperate limit upside potential. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 17-20 percent interval as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands or a result above 20 percent viewed as less likely given the stable polling trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено17-20% 60%
14-17% 25%
20%+ 15%
<14% 1.6%
$26,018 Объем
$26,018 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<14%
2%
14-17%
25%
17-20%
60%
20%+
15%
17-20% 60%
14-17% 25%
20%+ 15%
<14% 1.6%
$26,018 Объем
$26,018 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<14%
$3,176 Объем
2%
14-17%
$6,718 Объем
25%
17-20%
$6,558 Объем
60%
20%+
$9,567 Объем
15%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD at 17-18 percent, nearly double its 9.1 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. INSA, Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveys from early to mid-September all show the party in this narrow band, behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the SPD and Greens. Gains track broader national momentum for the AfD amid immigration and economic concerns, yet Berlin’s urban, liberal electorate and the other parties’ refusal to cooperate limit upside potential. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 17-20 percent interval as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands or a result above 20 percent viewed as less likely given the stable polling trend.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Объем
$26,018Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD at 17-18 percent, nearly double its 9.1 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. INSA, Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveys from early to mid-September all show the party in this narrow band, behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the SPD and Greens. Gains track broader national momentum for the AfD amid immigration and economic concerns, yet Berlin’s urban, liberal electorate and the other parties’ refusal to cooperate limit upside potential. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 17-20 percent interval as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands or a result above 20 percent viewed as less likely given the stable polling trend.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$26,018Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD at 17-18 percent, nearly double its 9.1 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote. INSA, Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveys from early to mid-September all show the party in this narrow band, behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the SPD and Greens. Gains track broader national momentum for the AfD amid immigration and economic concerns, yet Berlin’s urban, liberal electorate and the other parties’ refusal to cooperate limit upside potential. Trader consensus therefore centers on the 17-20 percent interval as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands or a result above 20 percent viewed as less likely given the stable polling trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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