Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a slim House majority following by-election gains and floor crossings in 2026, reducing immediate pressure for a snap federal election before the fixed-date vote in October 2029. Recent polling shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 14 points, buoyed by a “Trump bump” from ongoing U.S. trade tensions and tariff disputes that have rallied support around the government’s negotiating stance. Parliament resumes September 21 with Conservatives focused on regrouping rather than forcing confidence votes. Absent shifts in legislative dynamics, opposition cohesion, or major domestic crises, traders see little catalyst for an early writ drop in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$95,433 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря 2026 года
5%
$95,433 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
$3,776 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a slim House majority following by-election gains and floor crossings in 2026, reducing immediate pressure for a snap federal election before the fixed-date vote in October 2029. Recent polling shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 14 points, buoyed by a “Trump bump” from ongoing U.S. trade tensions and tariff disputes that have rallied support around the government’s negotiating stance. Parliament resumes September 21 with Conservatives focused on regrouping rather than forcing confidence votes. Absent shifts in legislative dynamics, opposition cohesion, or major domestic crises, traders see little catalyst for an early writ drop in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
Объем
$95,433Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a slim House majority following by-election gains and floor crossings in 2026, reducing immediate pressure for a snap federal election before the fixed-date vote in October 2029. Recent polling shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 14 points, buoyed by a “Trump bump” from ongoing U.S. trade tensions and tariff disputes that have rallied support around the government’s negotiating stance. Parliament resumes September 21 with Conservatives focused on regrouping rather than forcing confidence votes. Absent shifts in legislative dynamics, opposition cohesion, or major domestic crises, traders see little catalyst for an early writ drop in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$95,433Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 28, 2026, 4:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a slim House majority following by-election gains and floor crossings in 2026, reducing immediate pressure for a snap federal election before the fixed-date vote in October 2029. Recent polling shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 14 points, buoyed by a “Trump bump” from ongoing U.S. trade tensions and tariff disputes that have rallied support around the government’s negotiating stance. Parliament resumes September 21 with Conservatives focused on regrouping rather than forcing confidence votes. Absent shifts in legislative dynamics, opposition cohesion, or major domestic crises, traders see little catalyst for an early writ drop in the near term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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