Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПКК 44%
CAQ 36%
Квебекская партия (PQ) 18%
QS 2.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
ПКК
44%
CAQ
36%
Квебекская партия (PQ)
18%
QS
2%
PCQ
1%
PVQ
<1%
ПКК 44%
CAQ 36%
Квебекская партия (PQ) 18%
QS 2.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
ПКК
$3,040 Объем
44%
CAQ
$1,752 Объем
36%
Квебекская партия (PQ)
$1,113 Объем
18%
QS
$978 Объем
2%
PCQ
$553 Объем
1%
PVQ
$829 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
Объем
$8,265Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Объем
$8,265Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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