Trump's ongoing second term, marked by active pursuit of legislative and executive priorities through mid-2026, underpins the 96.7% trader consensus against resignation before 2027. No public statements, health disclosures, or procedural signals from the White House indicate any intent to step down, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary circumstances like the Nixon precedent. Speculation from political opponents, including forecasts tied to potential midterm outcomes, has surfaced but lacks corroboration from primary sources and has not shifted market pricing. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a documented health event requiring incapacitation or sudden institutional pressures from Congress, though both remain low-probability based on current evidence.