Apple's established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing timelines, and consistent executive commentary on annual hardware cycles reinforce trader confidence in the schedule. Historical precedent shows minimal deviation from this cadence despite occasional feature adjustments or minor delays. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unforeseen semiconductor shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets like the EU affecting certification, or major internal technical setbacks with advanced components such as next-generation chips or camera systems. No credible signals of cancellation or multi-year postponement have emerged as of early September 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
99% chance
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
99% chance
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing timelines, and consistent executive commentary on annual hardware cycles reinforce trader confidence in the schedule. Historical precedent shows minimal deviation from this cadence despite occasional feature adjustments or minor delays. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unforeseen semiconductor shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets like the EU affecting certification, or major internal technical setbacks with advanced components such as next-generation chips or camera systems. No credible signals of cancellation or multi-year postponement have emerged as of early September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,807Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing timelines, and consistent executive commentary on annual hardware cycles reinforce trader confidence in the schedule. Historical precedent shows minimal deviation from this cadence despite occasional feature adjustments or minor delays. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unforeseen semiconductor shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets like the EU affecting certification, or major internal technical setbacks with advanced components such as next-generation chips or camera systems. No credible signals of cancellation or multi-year postponement have emerged as of early September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,807Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of launching a new flagship iPhone each September drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports, component sourcing timelines, and consistent executive commentary on annual hardware cycles reinforce trader confidence in the schedule. Historical precedent shows minimal deviation from this cadence despite occasional feature adjustments or minor delays. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unforeseen semiconductor shortages, regulatory hurdles in key markets like the EU affecting certification, or major internal technical setbacks with advanced components such as next-generation chips or camera systems. No credible signals of cancellation or multi-year postponement have emerged as of early September 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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