The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, marked the most significant departure in years, driven by long-standing frustration with production quotas that constrained its capacity expansion plans, tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy and regional influence, and the desire to respond freely to market conditions amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions. Iraq has pressed for higher quotas and briefly raised exit scenarios in June without acting, while Venezuela has weighed a potential departure as of late August but remains a member. No other countries have announced or completed exits since the UAE move. OPEC+ continues coordinated output adjustments through 2026, with core members focusing on quota reviews and capacity baselines for 2027 rather than further defections. These factors underpin trader consensus that another departure this year remains unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
31 dez 2026
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
31 dez 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, marked the most significant departure in years, driven by long-standing frustration with production quotas that constrained its capacity expansion plans, tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy and regional influence, and the desire to respond freely to market conditions amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions. Iraq has pressed for higher quotas and briefly raised exit scenarios in June without acting, while Venezuela has weighed a potential departure as of late August but remains a member. No other countries have announced or completed exits since the UAE move. OPEC+ continues coordinated output adjustments through 2026, with core members focusing on quota reviews and capacity baselines for 2027 rather than further defections. These factors underpin trader consensus that another departure this year remains unlikely.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$175,089Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, marked the most significant departure in years, driven by long-standing frustration with production quotas that constrained its capacity expansion plans, tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy and regional influence, and the desire to respond freely to market conditions amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions. Iraq has pressed for higher quotas and briefly raised exit scenarios in June without acting, while Venezuela has weighed a potential departure as of late August but remains a member. No other countries have announced or completed exits since the UAE move. OPEC+ continues coordinated output adjustments through 2026, with core members focusing on quota reviews and capacity baselines for 2027 rather than further defections. These factors underpin trader consensus that another departure this year remains unlikely.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$175,089Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, marked the most significant departure in years, driven by long-standing frustration with production quotas that constrained its capacity expansion plans, tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy and regional influence, and the desire to respond freely to market conditions amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions. Iraq has pressed for higher quotas and briefly raised exit scenarios in June without acting, while Venezuela has weighed a potential departure as of late August but remains a member. No other countries have announced or completed exits since the UAE move. OPEC+ continues coordinated output adjustments through 2026, with core members focusing on quota reviews and capacity baselines for 2027 rather than further defections. These factors underpin trader consensus that another departure this year remains unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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