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icon for Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?
Tecnologia·IA

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?

icon for Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?
Tecnologia·IA

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?

out 1

nov 1

jan 1, 2027

out 1

nov 1

jan 1, 2027

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.8%

Google 3.0%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,324,582 Vol.

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.8%

Google 3.0%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,324,582 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$505,804 Vol.

84%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$403,606 Vol.

14%

icon for Google

Google

$220,603 Vol.

3%

icon for Meta

Meta

$284,661 Vol.

1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$204,645 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$150,567 Vol.

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$70,811 Vol.

<1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$33,925 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$100,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$33,423 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$77,310 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$19,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$47,425 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$18,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$14,148 Vol.

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$23,406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$25,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$18,597 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$12,889 Vol.

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$21,501 Vol.

<1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$37,694 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases drive the 83.5% implied probability that the company fields the strongest model by end-September, as independent benchmarks show leadership on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-horizon tasks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench variants. These updates build on prior gains in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption, outpacing rivals on metrics that matter for practical deployment. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduces competitive computer-use capabilities but faces restricted access and mixed third-party results relative to Anthropic’s offerings. Trader consensus reflects this momentum while recognizing that rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility could still shift outcomes before month-end.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,324,582
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases drive the 83.5% implied probability that the company fields the strongest model by end-September, as independent benchmarks show leadership on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-horizon tasks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench variants. These updates build on prior gains in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption, outpacing rivals on metrics that matter for practical deployment. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduces competitive computer-use capabilities but faces restricted access and mixed third-party results relative to Anthropic’s offerings. Trader consensus reflects this momentum while recognizing that rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility could still shift outcomes before month-end.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,324,582
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 84%, followed by "OpenAI" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?" is "Anthropic" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.