Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro?
Anthropic 86%
Google 8%
OpenAI 5.7%
Moonshot 3.0%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Anthropic
86%
8%
OpenAI
6%
Moonshot
3%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 8%
OpenAI 5.7%
Moonshot 3.0%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Anthropic
$1,340 Vol.
86%
$452 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$475 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$351 Vol.
3%
Meta
$236 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$320 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$148 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$329 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$162 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$162 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$162 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$165 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$230 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$235 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$250 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$230 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$224 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$160 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$165 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$198 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$6,142Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$6,142Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a slight edge in the market-implied odds due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 releases, which lead recent intelligence indices and agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants deliver strong all-around performance in reasoning and chat, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro excels in accuracy, research tasks, and multimodal capabilities. The near-even probabilities across top contenders reflect how specialized strengths—frontier coding, factual grounding, and tool use—create task-dependent leadership rather than a single dominant model. Traders are weighing July 2026 benchmark shifts against the potential for further releases or updates before September 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions