Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 63.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards on Artificial Analysis, LMArena Elo, and BenchAlign for intelligence, coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early September 2026. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol on key evaluations while delivering strong price-performance trade-offs, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities. OpenAI’s parallel Astra launch narrowed some gaps in specific workflows but has not displaced Anthropic’s lead. With only months remaining until year-end, the market reflects expectations that Anthropic’s iteration pace and benchmark momentum will hold against faster-following rivals like Google and xAI.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de 2026?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de 2026?
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,386 Vol.
$1,100,386 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Anthropic
64%
OpenAI
20%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,386 Vol.
$1,100,386 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Anthropic
$125,575 Vol.
64%
OpenAI
$101,929 Vol.
20%
$67,685 Vol.
10%
xAI
$87,034 Vol.
3%
Meta
$69,078 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$65,048 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$68,261 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$77,977 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$79,873 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$73,284 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$51,626 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$62,689 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$59,202 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$56,925 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$54,200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 63.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards on Artificial Analysis, LMArena Elo, and BenchAlign for intelligence, coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early September 2026. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol on key evaluations while delivering strong price-performance trade-offs, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities. OpenAI’s parallel Astra launch narrowed some gaps in specific workflows but has not displaced Anthropic’s lead. With only months remaining until year-end, the market reflects expectations that Anthropic’s iteration pace and benchmark momentum will hold against faster-following rivals like Google and xAI.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,386Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 63.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards on Artificial Analysis, LMArena Elo, and BenchAlign for intelligence, coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early September 2026. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol on key evaluations while delivering strong price-performance trade-offs, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities. OpenAI’s parallel Astra launch narrowed some gaps in specific workflows but has not displaced Anthropic’s lead. With only months remaining until year-end, the market reflects expectations that Anthropic’s iteration pace and benchmark momentum will hold against faster-following rivals like Google and xAI.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,100,386Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 63.5% market-implied probability by topping composite leaderboards on Artificial Analysis, LMArena Elo, and BenchAlign for intelligence, coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early September 2026. These models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol on key evaluations while delivering strong price-performance trade-offs, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities. OpenAI’s parallel Astra launch narrowed some gaps in specific workflows but has not displaced Anthropic’s lead. With only months remaining until year-end, the market reflects expectations that Anthropic’s iteration pace and benchmark momentum will hold against faster-following rivals like Google and xAI.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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