Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800 bilhões
31%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
12%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
6%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800 bilhões
$670 Vol.
31%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
12%
1T–1,1T
$1,458 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$1,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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