Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.3% and headline pressures from tariffs, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, anchors trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The July 29, 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%—with three members dissenting in favor of a hike—reinforced this stance amid solid economic growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Market-implied odds of no change at 60% reflect the Fed’s data-dependent approach and projections showing limited room for easing before inflation moderates further, while the 24% probability of a 25 basis point increase captures residual hawkish risks if price pressures persist.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 4.3%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
24%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
4%
No change 61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 4.3%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
$361 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$225 Vol.
15%
No change
$1,475 Vol.
61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$366 Vol.
24%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$225 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.3% and headline pressures from tariffs, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, anchors trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The July 29, 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%—with three members dissenting in favor of a hike—reinforced this stance amid solid economic growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Market-implied odds of no change at 60% reflect the Fed’s data-dependent approach and projections showing limited room for easing before inflation moderates further, while the 24% probability of a 25 basis point increase captures residual hawkish risks if price pressures persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$2,652Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.3% and headline pressures from tariffs, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, anchors trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The July 29, 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%—with three members dissenting in favor of a hike—reinforced this stance amid solid economic growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Market-implied odds of no change at 60% reflect the Fed’s data-dependent approach and projections showing limited room for easing before inflation moderates further, while the 24% probability of a 25 basis point increase captures residual hawkish risks if price pressures persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,652Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with core PCE readings near 3.3% and headline pressures from tariffs, energy costs, and AI-driven demand, anchors trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The July 29, 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%—with three members dissenting in favor of a hike—reinforced this stance amid solid economic growth and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate. Market-implied odds of no change at 60% reflect the Fed’s data-dependent approach and projections showing limited room for easing before inflation moderates further, while the 24% probability of a 25 basis point increase captures residual hawkish risks if price pressures persist.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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