Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
15% chance
$2,571,950 Vol.
$2,571,950 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
15% chance
$2,571,950 Vol.
$2,571,950 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,571,950Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,571,950Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions