Ukraine’s longstanding constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by Kyiv and Western allies through 2026 summits, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by August 31. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path to the alliance as irreversible, with recent pledges of equipment and training reinforcing integration rather than neutrality. Ongoing peace discussions, including U.S.-facilitated efforts, have not produced verifiable proposals requiring Ukraine to abandon its aspirations in exchange for guarantees, and Ukrainian officials have rejected such trade-offs in prior rounds. The brief remaining window further limits scope for any binding diplomatic reversal. A sudden U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework explicitly conditioning security arrangements on permanent non-membership could still shift probabilities, though no such development is confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
1% chance
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sim
1% chance
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s longstanding constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by Kyiv and Western allies through 2026 summits, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by August 31. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path to the alliance as irreversible, with recent pledges of equipment and training reinforcing integration rather than neutrality. Ongoing peace discussions, including U.S.-facilitated efforts, have not produced verifiable proposals requiring Ukraine to abandon its aspirations in exchange for guarantees, and Ukrainian officials have rejected such trade-offs in prior rounds. The brief remaining window further limits scope for any binding diplomatic reversal. A sudden U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework explicitly conditioning security arrangements on permanent non-membership could still shift probabilities, though no such development is confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$25,410Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s longstanding constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by Kyiv and Western allies through 2026 summits, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by August 31. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path to the alliance as irreversible, with recent pledges of equipment and training reinforcing integration rather than neutrality. Ongoing peace discussions, including U.S.-facilitated efforts, have not produced verifiable proposals requiring Ukraine to abandon its aspirations in exchange for guarantees, and Ukrainian officials have rejected such trade-offs in prior rounds. The brief remaining window further limits scope for any binding diplomatic reversal. A sudden U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework explicitly conditioning security arrangements on permanent non-membership could still shift probabilities, though no such development is confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$25,410Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s longstanding constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by Kyiv and Western allies through 2026 summits, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by August 31. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path to the alliance as irreversible, with recent pledges of equipment and training reinforcing integration rather than neutrality. Ongoing peace discussions, including U.S.-facilitated efforts, have not produced verifiable proposals requiring Ukraine to abandon its aspirations in exchange for guarantees, and Ukrainian officials have rejected such trade-offs in prior rounds. The brief remaining window further limits scope for any binding diplomatic reversal. A sudden U.S.-brokered ceasefire framework explicitly conditioning security arrangements on permanent non-membership could still shift probabilities, though no such development is confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions