Russia’s sustained military commitment to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, coupled with heavy personnel and equipment losses through mid-2026, underpins trader consensus that no new invasion will occur this year. Ongoing offensives in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts have produced only marginal territorial gains amid Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and logistics, while recruitment shortfalls and stalled summer advances signal limited bandwidth for opening additional fronts. Official Russian statements and battlefield reporting remain focused exclusively on Ukraine, with no verified preparations or threats directed at other neighbors. The 95.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this resource strain and lack of recent escalatory signals. A rapid Ukrainian collapse or major diplomatic shift could still free capacity for action elsewhere before year-end, though current evidence shows no such trajectory.