Ongoing martial law in Ukraine continues to bar national referendums and elections under constitutional rules, while any peace framework would first require a sustained ceasefire to enable secure voting for displaced citizens and troops. As of mid-August 2026, U.S.-mediated talks remain stalled amid unresolved territorial claims, security guarantees, and Russia's rejection of unconditional ceasefires, with recent Ukrainian proposals to American negotiators producing no breakthrough. This diplomatic impasse, coupled with persistent military operations, underpins trader consensus at 95.5% against passage before 2027. A swift negotiated ceasefire enabling a vote by year-end or a decisive battlefield shift prompting rapid agreement could still alter the timeline.