The redrawn boundaries of Texas's 35th congressional district, implemented after the 2025 legislative process to strengthen Republican performance in South Central Texas, have positioned the open-seat November 2026 contest as competitive despite the shift. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar opted to run in the 37th district instead, leaving Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County deputy sheriff, to face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, following their respective May runoffs. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's underlying demographics and historical voting patterns that still provide a narrow path for Democrats even after redistricting, while Republican prospects benefit from the map changes and the broader midterm environment. No major new developments have altered the balance in recent weeks, leaving candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout among key voting blocs as primary variables ahead of the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-35
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-35
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
57%
Partido Republicano
44%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$4,286 Vol.
57%
Partido Republicano
$3,981 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries of Texas's 35th congressional district, implemented after the 2025 legislative process to strengthen Republican performance in South Central Texas, have positioned the open-seat November 2026 contest as competitive despite the shift. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar opted to run in the 37th district instead, leaving Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County deputy sheriff, to face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, following their respective May runoffs. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's underlying demographics and historical voting patterns that still provide a narrow path for Democrats even after redistricting, while Republican prospects benefit from the map changes and the broader midterm environment. No major new developments have altered the balance in recent weeks, leaving candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout among key voting blocs as primary variables ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$8,266Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries of Texas's 35th congressional district, implemented after the 2025 legislative process to strengthen Republican performance in South Central Texas, have positioned the open-seat November 2026 contest as competitive despite the shift. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar opted to run in the 37th district instead, leaving Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County deputy sheriff, to face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, following their respective May runoffs. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's underlying demographics and historical voting patterns that still provide a narrow path for Democrats even after redistricting, while Republican prospects benefit from the map changes and the broader midterm environment. No major new developments have altered the balance in recent weeks, leaving candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout among key voting blocs as primary variables ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,266Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries of Texas's 35th congressional district, implemented after the 2025 legislative process to strengthen Republican performance in South Central Texas, have positioned the open-seat November 2026 contest as competitive despite the shift. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar opted to run in the 37th district instead, leaving Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County deputy sheriff, to face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, following their respective May runoffs. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's underlying demographics and historical voting patterns that still provide a narrow path for Democrats even after redistricting, while Republican prospects benefit from the map changes and the broader midterm environment. No major new developments have altered the balance in recent weeks, leaving candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout among key voting blocs as primary variables ahead of the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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