Iran’s 88-day nationwide internet blackout, the longest on record, began amid January 2026 protests and intensified after U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, before partial restoration started May 26 under President Pezeshkian’s order despite IRGC resistance and court challenges. Connectivity remains limited, with social media blocked and access below pre-2026 levels for most users, while the National Information Network and whitelisting continue. Traders weigh this precedent of severe economic costs—job losses, daily revenue shortfalls, and industry disruption—against the regime’s history of imposing shutdowns during unrest or conflict. Low near-term probabilities reflect the absence of fresh large-scale protests or escalation since restoration, though renewed demonstrations, diplomatic crises, or security directives could quickly alter the calculus before later 2026 deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$245,629 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
12%
31 de dezembro
28%
$245,629 Vol.
30 de setembro
$4,782 Vol.
12%
31 de dezembro
$11,396 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran’s 88-day nationwide internet blackout, the longest on record, began amid January 2026 protests and intensified after U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, before partial restoration started May 26 under President Pezeshkian’s order despite IRGC resistance and court challenges. Connectivity remains limited, with social media blocked and access below pre-2026 levels for most users, while the National Information Network and whitelisting continue. Traders weigh this precedent of severe economic costs—job losses, daily revenue shortfalls, and industry disruption—against the regime’s history of imposing shutdowns during unrest or conflict. Low near-term probabilities reflect the absence of fresh large-scale protests or escalation since restoration, though renewed demonstrations, diplomatic crises, or security directives could quickly alter the calculus before later 2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$245,629Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran’s 88-day nationwide internet blackout, the longest on record, began amid January 2026 protests and intensified after U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, before partial restoration started May 26 under President Pezeshkian’s order despite IRGC resistance and court challenges. Connectivity remains limited, with social media blocked and access below pre-2026 levels for most users, while the National Information Network and whitelisting continue. Traders weigh this precedent of severe economic costs—job losses, daily revenue shortfalls, and industry disruption—against the regime’s history of imposing shutdowns during unrest or conflict. Low near-term probabilities reflect the absence of fresh large-scale protests or escalation since restoration, though renewed demonstrations, diplomatic crises, or security directives could quickly alter the calculus before later 2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$245,629Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s 88-day nationwide internet blackout, the longest on record, began amid January 2026 protests and intensified after U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, before partial restoration started May 26 under President Pezeshkian’s order despite IRGC resistance and court challenges. Connectivity remains limited, with social media blocked and access below pre-2026 levels for most users, while the National Information Network and whitelisting continue. Traders weigh this precedent of severe economic costs—job losses, daily revenue shortfalls, and industry disruption—against the regime’s history of imposing shutdowns during unrest or conflict. Low near-term probabilities reflect the absence of fresh large-scale protests or escalation since restoration, though renewed demonstrations, diplomatic crises, or security directives could quickly alter the calculus before later 2026 deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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