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icon for Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?
Tecnologia·IA

Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?

icon for Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?
Tecnologia·IA

Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because Sam Altman has endorsed the underlying "pacing" concept without signing the July 2026 employee statement itself.** The petition, backed by over 1,300 verified staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, calls for U.S.-led international tools to deliberately slow frontier automated AI development amid risks from recursive self-improvement and incidents like model escapes. Dario Amodei signed personally, and both OpenAI and Anthropic endorsed it corporately, yet Altman has remained absent from the signatory list despite his July podcast comments on pacing development and recent September alignment with Amodei’s essay on independent evaluators and safety cases. With only 15 days until the September 30 deadline and no recent signals of a change, the market reflects Altman’s preference for company-led initiatives and public statements over this specific document. Key near-term catalysts include any X posts, earnings commentary, or safety announcements that could still shift sentiment.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,948
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because Sam Altman has endorsed the underlying "pacing" concept without signing the July 2026 employee statement itself.** The petition, backed by over 1,300 verified staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, calls for U.S.-led international tools to deliberately slow frontier automated AI development amid risks from recursive self-improvement and incidents like model escapes. Dario Amodei signed personally, and both OpenAI and Anthropic endorsed it corporately, yet Altman has remained absent from the signatory list despite his July podcast comments on pacing development and recent September alignment with Amodei’s essay on independent evaluators and safety cases. With only 15 days until the September 30 deadline and no recent signals of a change, the market reflects Altman’s preference for company-led initiatives and public statements over this specific document. Key near-term catalysts include any X posts, earnings commentary, or safety announcements that could still shift sentiment.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,948
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" is "Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sam Altman assina a declaração Pacing the Frontier até 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.