Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDesastre natural em 2026?
Desastre natural em 2026?
Sim
21% chance
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
21% chance
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,641Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,641Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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