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icon for Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por...

Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por...

icon for Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por...

Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por...

NOVO
Polymarket

$4,714 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for 30 de agosto

30 de agosto

$1,544 Vol.

22%

icon for 31 de outubro

31 de outubro

$501 Vol.

47%

icon for 31 de dezembro

31 de dezembro

$534 Vol.

54%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae infest open wounds in warm-blooded animals, causing myiasis that can rapidly kill livestock if untreated.** The U.S. eradicated the pest domestically in the 1960s using sterile insect technique releases, but an outbreak began with the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, in a calf in Zavala County, Texas. Subsequent detections through mid-August 2026 have involved dozens of cases (primarily cattle, plus goats and sheep) across multiple Texas counties, with one early detection in a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. USDA-APHIS leads intensified surveillance, including traps, drone flights, and movement controls, while maintaining infested zones mainly in Texas and adjacent New Mexico areas. No confirmed livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) cases outside Texas have been reported as of mid-August 2026, though the New Mexico dog case and proximity to the border raise spread risks via animal transport or wild hosts. Official updates note very low current risk to U.S. animals and people overall, with no locally acquired human cases. Trader sentiment centers on containment effectiveness: ongoing detections within Texas versus any new livestock confirmation in another state. Key upcoming factors include USDA port reopening decisions (e.g., Douglas, AZ on August 24, 2026), weekly APHIS dashboard updates on active cases and fly detections, and any expansion of sterile insect releases or quarantines. Resolution hinges on verified livestock cases by the market's deadline, with model consensus and surveillance data releases serving as primary catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae infest open wounds in warm-blooded animals, causing myiasis that can rapidly kill livestock if untreated.** The U.S. eradicated the pest domestically in the 1960s using sterile insect technique releases, but an outbreak began with the first confirmed U.S. case on June 3, 2026, in a calf in Zavala County, Texas. Subsequent detections through mid-August 2026 have involved dozens of cases (primarily cattle, plus goats and sheep) across multiple Texas counties, with one early detection in a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. USDA-APHIS leads intensified surveillance, including traps, drone flights, and movement controls, while maintaining infested zones mainly in Texas and adjacent New Mexico areas. No confirmed livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) cases outside Texas have been reported as of mid-August 2026, though the New Mexico dog case and proximity to the border raise spread risks via animal transport or wild hosts. Official updates note very low current risk to U.S. animals and people overall, with no locally acquired human cases. Trader sentiment centers on containment effectiveness: ongoing detections within Texas versus any new livestock confirmation in another state. Key upcoming factors include USDA port reopening decisions (e.g., Douglas, AZ on August 24, 2026), weekly APHIS dashboard updates on active cases and fly detections, and any expansion of sterile insect releases or quarantines. Resolution hinges on verified livestock cases by the market's deadline, with model consensus and surveillance data releases serving as primary catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por..." is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 54%, followed by "31 de outubro" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por..." is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por...," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por..." is "31 de dezembro" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de outubro" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Caso US Screwworm confirmado em Pecuária além do Texas por..." define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.