SpaceX's aggressive 2026 testing cadence with Starship Version 3, including recent Flight 13 milestones like controlled reentry, dummy satellite deployment, and in-space Raptor relights, underpins the 73% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Official updates highlight V3 avionics and hardware upgrades aimed at rapid booster and ship recovery, building on prior Super Heavy catches and propellant transfer demos. Traders weigh these engineering steps against remaining hurdles such as consistent ship heat shield performance and orbital catch attempts planned for Flight 14, while noting Elon Musk's repeated timelines for demonstrating both-stage reuse this year. Upcoming flights and regulatory approvals for higher cadence operations remain key catalysts that could shift consensus.