xAI has yet to release Grok 5, a planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model positioned as a generational leap beyond the Grok 4.5 and 4.6 releases of July and August 2026. Training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster began after earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, with the model now incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data alongside multimodal capabilities. Recent incremental updates such as Grok 4.7 expected in September have kept the product competitive on speed and coding benchmarks while the larger flagship remains in post-training. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders pricing a late-2026 window as the most likely path amid ongoing infrastructure scaling and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGrok 5 lançado por...?
Grok 5 lançado por...?
$11,025 Vol.
31 out 2026
31 de outubro
10%
30 de novembro
26%
31 de dezembro
64%
$11,025 Vol.
31 de outubro
$1,847 Vol.
10%
30 de novembro
$614 Vol.
26%
31 de dezembro
$3,487 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has yet to release Grok 5, a planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model positioned as a generational leap beyond the Grok 4.5 and 4.6 releases of July and August 2026. Training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster began after earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, with the model now incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data alongside multimodal capabilities. Recent incremental updates such as Grok 4.7 expected in September have kept the product competitive on speed and coding benchmarks while the larger flagship remains in post-training. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders pricing a late-2026 window as the most likely path amid ongoing infrastructure scaling and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$11,025Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has yet to release Grok 5, a planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model positioned as a generational leap beyond the Grok 4.5 and 4.6 releases of July and August 2026. Training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster began after earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, with the model now incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data alongside multimodal capabilities. Recent incremental updates such as Grok 4.7 expected in September have kept the product competitive on speed and coding benchmarks while the larger flagship remains in post-training. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders pricing a late-2026 window as the most likely path amid ongoing infrastructure scaling and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,025Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI has yet to release Grok 5, a planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model positioned as a generational leap beyond the Grok 4.5 and 4.6 releases of July and August 2026. Training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster began after earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, with the model now incorporating extensive SpaceX engineering data alongside multimodal capabilities. Recent incremental updates such as Grok 4.7 expected in September have kept the product competitive on speed and coding benchmarks while the larger flagship remains in post-training. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with traders pricing a late-2026 window as the most likely path amid ongoing infrastructure scaling and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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