Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
2nd hottest 47%
1st hottest 47%
4th or lower 32%
3rd hottest 23%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
47%
2nd hottest
47%
3rd hottest
23%
4th or lower
32%
2nd hottest 47%
1st hottest 47%
4th or lower 32%
3rd hottest 23%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
$1 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
47%
3rd hottest
$36 Vol.
23%
4th or lower
$35 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$73Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$73Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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