Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification through late 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward near-normal or below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s July 30 outlook assigns higher probability to near-normal totals for the August–October period amid this backdrop, consistent with typical El Niño suppression of monsoon and tropical cyclone activity across Southeast Asia. Historical August climatology centers near 350–450 mm, with heavy events often tied to typhoon passages whose frequency and tracks remain uncertain at this lead time. Market prices cluster around the 475–500 mm and 700 mm+ bins because traders weigh the strength of expected drying against residual potential for one or more intense rainfall episodes. Updated ENSO and HKO guidance in mid-August will provide the next key test of these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
475-500mm 36%
650-700mm 32%
425-450mm 31%
<425mm 31%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
<425mm
31%
425-450mm
31%
450-475mm
22%
475-500mm
36%
500-525mm
32%
525-550mm
15%
550-600mm
22%
600-650mm
24%
650-700mm
32%
700mm+
38%
475-500mm 36%
650-700mm 32%
425-450mm 31%
<425mm 31%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
<425mm
$87 Vol.
31%
425-450mm
$66 Vol.
31%
450-475mm
$83 Vol.
22%
475-500mm
$66 Vol.
36%
500-525mm
$69 Vol.
32%
525-550mm
$98 Vol.
15%
550-600mm
$80 Vol.
22%
600-650mm
$66 Vol.
24%
650-700mm
$40 Vol.
32%
700mm+
$153 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification through late 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward near-normal or below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s July 30 outlook assigns higher probability to near-normal totals for the August–October period amid this backdrop, consistent with typical El Niño suppression of monsoon and tropical cyclone activity across Southeast Asia. Historical August climatology centers near 350–450 mm, with heavy events often tied to typhoon passages whose frequency and tracks remain uncertain at this lead time. Market prices cluster around the 475–500 mm and 700 mm+ bins because traders weigh the strength of expected drying against residual potential for one or more intense rainfall episodes. Updated ENSO and HKO guidance in mid-August will provide the next key test of these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$809Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification through late 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward near-normal or below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s July 30 outlook assigns higher probability to near-normal totals for the August–October period amid this backdrop, consistent with typical El Niño suppression of monsoon and tropical cyclone activity across Southeast Asia. Historical August climatology centers near 350–450 mm, with heavy events often tied to typhoon passages whose frequency and tracks remain uncertain at this lead time. Market prices cluster around the 475–500 mm and 700 mm+ bins because traders weigh the strength of expected drying against residual potential for one or more intense rainfall episodes. Updated ENSO and HKO guidance in mid-August will provide the next key test of these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$809Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring further intensification through late 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward near-normal or below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s July 30 outlook assigns higher probability to near-normal totals for the August–October period amid this backdrop, consistent with typical El Niño suppression of monsoon and tropical cyclone activity across Southeast Asia. Historical August climatology centers near 350–450 mm, with heavy events often tied to typhoon passages whose frequency and tracks remain uncertain at this lead time. Market prices cluster around the 475–500 mm and 700 mm+ bins because traders weigh the strength of expected drying against residual potential for one or more intense rainfall episodes. Updated ENSO and HKO guidance in mid-August will provide the next key test of these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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