Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and rising, introduce notable uncertainty for Seoul's August rainfall by altering the East Asian monsoon and steering patterns. Historical averages near 290–350 mm place central bins around typical outcomes, yet recent delayed monsoon onset and lingering late-July heavy rain events highlight potential for either suppressed totals or extreme additions from typhoons. Trader odds cluster near 34–44% across ranges, reflecting divergent model guidance on intensification timing and landfall probability. KMA and NOAA updates through early August will clarify whether atmospheric blocking or tropical cyclone activity shifts the distribution toward drier or wetter extremes.