Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast by NOAA to intensify into one of the strongest on record through the August-October peak, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear. The agency’s August 2026 outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, with only 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes expected across the full June–November period; Colorado State University similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and places the probability of any U.S. major landfall at roughly 17–24%. With the season already far behind climatology—only three weak tropical storms formed by late August and zero hurricanes—the combination of hostile atmospheric conditions and low remaining activity sharply reduces the odds of a Category 4 (130+ kt sustained winds) reaching the U.S. coast before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Algum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Sim
15% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
15% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
30 dez 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast by NOAA to intensify into one of the strongest on record through the August-October peak, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear. The agency’s August 2026 outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, with only 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes expected across the full June–November period; Colorado State University similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and places the probability of any U.S. major landfall at roughly 17–24%. With the season already far behind climatology—only three weak tropical storms formed by late August and zero hurricanes—the combination of hostile atmospheric conditions and low remaining activity sharply reduces the odds of a Category 4 (130+ kt sustained winds) reaching the U.S. coast before the end of 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,802Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast by NOAA to intensify into one of the strongest on record through the August-October peak, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear. The agency’s August 2026 outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, with only 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes expected across the full June–November period; Colorado State University similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and places the probability of any U.S. major landfall at roughly 17–24%. With the season already far behind climatology—only three weak tropical storms formed by late August and zero hurricanes—the combination of hostile atmospheric conditions and low remaining activity sharply reduces the odds of a Category 4 (130+ kt sustained winds) reaching the U.S. coast before the end of 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,802Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast by NOAA to intensify into one of the strongest on record through the August-October peak, are suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear. The agency’s August 2026 outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, with only 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes expected across the full June–November period; Colorado State University similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and places the probability of any U.S. major landfall at roughly 17–24%. With the season already far behind climatology—only three weak tropical storms formed by late August and zero hurricanes—the combination of hostile atmospheric conditions and low remaining activity sharply reduces the odds of a Category 4 (130+ kt sustained winds) reaching the U.S. coast before the end of 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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