The Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, draws from the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimates grounded in the IPCC's 2021 physical science assessment, projecting depletion at a steady ~42 GtCO2 annual emissions rate. Strong trader consensus on stability through December 2026 reflects the clock's infrequent recalibrations—last major shift occurred in late 2023—combined with persistent record-high global emissions that have not yet triggered a new data release or model revision sufficient to alter the published timestamp by more than 30 days. Ongoing observational trends from agencies like NOAA show continued warming near 1.4°C but no abrupt shift in the underlying budget methodology before year-end. A realistic challenge could arise from an unscheduled MCC update incorporating accelerated 2025–2026 emission growth or revised IPCC carbon budget figures, though historical patterns indicate such changes occur on multi-year cycles rather than within the next four months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO prazo de 1,5°C do Relógio Climático mudará até...?
O prazo de 1,5°C do Relógio Climático mudará até...?
10% chance
$12,623 Vol.
$12,623 Vol.
1 jan 2027
10% chance
$12,623 Vol.
$12,623 Vol.
1 jan 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, draws from the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimates grounded in the IPCC's 2021 physical science assessment, projecting depletion at a steady ~42 GtCO2 annual emissions rate. Strong trader consensus on stability through December 2026 reflects the clock's infrequent recalibrations—last major shift occurred in late 2023—combined with persistent record-high global emissions that have not yet triggered a new data release or model revision sufficient to alter the published timestamp by more than 30 days. Ongoing observational trends from agencies like NOAA show continued warming near 1.4°C but no abrupt shift in the underlying budget methodology before year-end. A realistic challenge could arise from an unscheduled MCC update incorporating accelerated 2025–2026 emission growth or revised IPCC carbon budget figures, though historical patterns indicate such changes occur on multi-year cycles rather than within the next four months.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$12,623Data de Término
31 dez 2029Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, draws from the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimates grounded in the IPCC's 2021 physical science assessment, projecting depletion at a steady ~42 GtCO2 annual emissions rate. Strong trader consensus on stability through December 2026 reflects the clock's infrequent recalibrations—last major shift occurred in late 2023—combined with persistent record-high global emissions that have not yet triggered a new data release or model revision sufficient to alter the published timestamp by more than 30 days. Ongoing observational trends from agencies like NOAA show continued warming near 1.4°C but no abrupt shift in the underlying budget methodology before year-end. A realistic challenge could arise from an unscheduled MCC update incorporating accelerated 2025–2026 emission growth or revised IPCC carbon budget figures, though historical patterns indicate such changes occur on multi-year cycles rather than within the next four months.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$12,623Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...The Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, draws from the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimates grounded in the IPCC's 2021 physical science assessment, projecting depletion at a steady ~42 GtCO2 annual emissions rate. Strong trader consensus on stability through December 2026 reflects the clock's infrequent recalibrations—last major shift occurred in late 2023—combined with persistent record-high global emissions that have not yet triggered a new data release or model revision sufficient to alter the published timestamp by more than 30 days. Ongoing observational trends from agencies like NOAA show continued warming near 1.4°C but no abrupt shift in the underlying budget methodology before year-end. A realistic challenge could arise from an unscheduled MCC update incorporating accelerated 2025–2026 emission growth or revised IPCC carbon budget figures, though historical patterns indicate such changes occur on multi-year cycles rather than within the next four months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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