Strong consensus from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and international models supports a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 23, 2026, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. This aligns with climatological August baselines near 24°C and recent guidance indicating overnight lows in that narrow range amid partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers. Cross-model agreement, including Met Office runs, shows limited divergence, with only modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any overnight clearing that could slightly elevate readings. Trader positioning reflects this evidence-based outlook, as capital-weighted sentiment favors outcomes within verified forecast bounds. A realistic challenge would require substantial model revisions or unforecasted radiative cooling pushing the official minimum to 24°C or below before the 12:00 UTC resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 23 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 23 de agosto?
25°C 98.6%
24°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 98.6%
24°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
20°C or below
$393 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$781 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$811 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,667 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,688 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,895 Vol.
99%
26°C
$1,122 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$229 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong consensus from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and international models supports a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 23, 2026, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. This aligns with climatological August baselines near 24°C and recent guidance indicating overnight lows in that narrow range amid partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers. Cross-model agreement, including Met Office runs, shows limited divergence, with only modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any overnight clearing that could slightly elevate readings. Trader positioning reflects this evidence-based outlook, as capital-weighted sentiment favors outcomes within verified forecast bounds. A realistic challenge would require substantial model revisions or unforecasted radiative cooling pushing the official minimum to 24°C or below before the 12:00 UTC resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$9,387Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong consensus from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and international models supports a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 23, 2026, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. This aligns with climatological August baselines near 24°C and recent guidance indicating overnight lows in that narrow range amid partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers. Cross-model agreement, including Met Office runs, shows limited divergence, with only modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any overnight clearing that could slightly elevate readings. Trader positioning reflects this evidence-based outlook, as capital-weighted sentiment favors outcomes within verified forecast bounds. A realistic challenge would require substantial model revisions or unforecasted radiative cooling pushing the official minimum to 24°C or below before the 12:00 UTC resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,387Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong consensus from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and international models supports a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24–25°C on August 23, 2026, driving the 97.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. This aligns with climatological August baselines near 24°C and recent guidance indicating overnight lows in that narrow range amid partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers. Cross-model agreement, including Met Office runs, shows limited divergence, with only modest uncertainty tied to the exact timing of any overnight clearing that could slightly elevate readings. Trader positioning reflects this evidence-based outlook, as capital-weighted sentiment favors outcomes within verified forecast bounds. A realistic challenge would require substantial model revisions or unforecasted radiative cooling pushing the official minimum to 24°C or below before the 12:00 UTC resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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