Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance and AccuWeather model runs indicate overnight lows near the seasonal climatological average of 26–28°C for late August, with normal-to-above-normal temperatures expected through the month under prevailing ENSO-neutral conditions. Limited nocturnal radiative cooling from persistent humidity, cloud cover, and urban effects typically keeps the minimum near 27°C at the official headquarters station, supporting the 39.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Shorter-range forecasts show scattered showers and southwesterly flow through August 26, which may suppress temperatures slightly below recent observed minima (25–26°C) or allow brief warming if skies clear, explaining elevated probabilities on both the 22°C-or-below and 32°C-or-higher buckets. No tropical cyclone signals or sharp frontal passages are currently indicated, keeping extreme deviations less likely but preserving uncertainty until the final 48-hour model updates.