Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits holding in the low single digits amid U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes near Larak Island on August 30-31. Iranian blacklists targeting dozens of vessels, sanctions enforcement, mine-laying threats, and attacks on tankers have prompted widespread avoidance, AIS-dark routing, and reliance on limited southern or Iranian-approved corridors, keeping aggregate weekly volumes far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 85-130 transits per day. These dynamics support the market's strong weighting toward the 20-39 outcome for the August 31 week, as operators prioritize risk mitigation over volume recovery despite any temporary corridor discussions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 31 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 31 de agosto?
20-39 70%
<20 27%
40-59 3.9%
60-79 1.0%
$42,829 Vol.
$42,829 Vol.
6 set 2026
<20
27%
20-39
70%
40-59
4%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 70%
<20 27%
40-59 3.9%
60-79 1.0%
$42,829 Vol.
$42,829 Vol.
6 set 2026
<20
$11,631 Vol.
27%
20-39
$23,422 Vol.
70%
40-59
$4,503 Vol.
4%
60-79
$1,836 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,437 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits holding in the low single digits amid U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes near Larak Island on August 30-31. Iranian blacklists targeting dozens of vessels, sanctions enforcement, mine-laying threats, and attacks on tankers have prompted widespread avoidance, AIS-dark routing, and reliance on limited southern or Iranian-approved corridors, keeping aggregate weekly volumes far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 85-130 transits per day. These dynamics support the market's strong weighting toward the 20-39 outcome for the August 31 week, as operators prioritize risk mitigation over volume recovery despite any temporary corridor discussions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$42,829Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits holding in the low single digits amid U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes near Larak Island on August 30-31. Iranian blacklists targeting dozens of vessels, sanctions enforcement, mine-laying threats, and attacks on tankers have prompted widespread avoidance, AIS-dark routing, and reliance on limited southern or Iranian-approved corridors, keeping aggregate weekly volumes far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 85-130 transits per day. These dynamics support the market's strong weighting toward the 20-39 outcome for the August 31 week, as operators prioritize risk mitigation over volume recovery despite any temporary corridor discussions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$42,829Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits holding in the low single digits amid U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes near Larak Island on August 30-31. Iranian blacklists targeting dozens of vessels, sanctions enforcement, mine-laying threats, and attacks on tankers have prompted widespread avoidance, AIS-dark routing, and reliance on limited southern or Iranian-approved corridors, keeping aggregate weekly volumes far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 85-130 transits per day. These dynamics support the market's strong weighting toward the 20-39 outcome for the August 31 week, as operators prioritize risk mitigation over volume recovery despite any temporary corridor discussions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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