Traders assign a near-certain 99.9% implied probability to a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show daytime maxima stabilizing at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures peaking near 30°C with minimal deviation, consistent with early-September climatology for the region where average highs range 29–31°C. Low probabilities on adjacent outcomes reflect limited model spread and the absence of incoming cold fronts or enhanced moisture that could shift readings by even 1°C. Resolution hinges on the final verified maximum from the Shanghai meteorological station; any unexpected late-day surge or measurement revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome before the market settles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Xangai no dia 5 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Xangai no dia 5 de setembro?
30°C 100.0%
25°C ou menos <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$61,557 Vol.
$61,557 Vol.
5 set 2026
25°C ou menos
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C ou mais
<1%
30°C 100.0%
25°C ou menos <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$61,557 Vol.
$61,557 Vol.
5 set 2026
25°C ou menos
$797 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$665 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3,597 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,785 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$9,986 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$17,287 Vol.
100%
31°C
$14,983 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,568 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,183 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$461 Vol.
<1%
35°C ou mais
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a near-certain 99.9% implied probability to a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show daytime maxima stabilizing at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures peaking near 30°C with minimal deviation, consistent with early-September climatology for the region where average highs range 29–31°C. Low probabilities on adjacent outcomes reflect limited model spread and the absence of incoming cold fronts or enhanced moisture that could shift readings by even 1°C. Resolution hinges on the final verified maximum from the Shanghai meteorological station; any unexpected late-day surge or measurement revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$61,557Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a near-certain 99.9% implied probability to a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show daytime maxima stabilizing at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures peaking near 30°C with minimal deviation, consistent with early-September climatology for the region where average highs range 29–31°C. Low probabilities on adjacent outcomes reflect limited model spread and the absence of incoming cold fronts or enhanced moisture that could shift readings by even 1°C. Resolution hinges on the final verified maximum from the Shanghai meteorological station; any unexpected late-day surge or measurement revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61,557Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a near-certain 99.9% implied probability to a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show daytime maxima stabilizing at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent observations confirm surface temperatures peaking near 30°C with minimal deviation, consistent with early-September climatology for the region where average highs range 29–31°C. Low probabilities on adjacent outcomes reflect limited model spread and the absence of incoming cold fronts or enhanced moisture that could shift readings by even 1°C. Resolution hinges on the final verified maximum from the Shanghai meteorological station; any unexpected late-day surge or measurement revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome before the market settles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions