Official temperature observations from meteorological stations in Panama City confirmed a daily maximum of 34°C on July 31, anchoring the market’s near-certain outcome at that level. This reading aligns with wet-season patterns in the region, where afternoon convection and humidity typically moderate extremes yet allow brief peaks several degrees above the long-term July average near 30–31°C. Ensemble models and historical analogs had pointed to a 32–34°C range, and the final verified data resolved any remaining spread. Only an unlikely post-analysis revision by the primary reporting agency or use of an alternate station with systematically lower readings could reopen uncertainty, though such adjustments rarely exceed 1°C after initial quality control.