Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Moscow high of 27–28°C on August 1, supported by southerly advection of warmer air masses and light winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating under predominantly clear skies. These conditions align with the market's leading implied probabilities, where traders assign 55% odds to 27°C and 21% to 28°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of ensemble guidance. Historical August averages near 22–24°C provide baseline context, yet recent model runs show modest positive anomalies without the stronger ridging needed for 29°C or higher, which carries only 8.5% implied probability. Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 1 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 1 de agosto?
27°C 55%
28°C 21%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
NOVO
$23,616 Vol.
NOVO
$23,616 Vol.
1 ago 2026
20°C ou menos
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
15%
27°C
55%
28°C
21%
29°C
9%
30°C ou mais
1%
27°C 55%
28°C 21%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
NOVO
$23,616 Vol.
NOVO
$23,616 Vol.
1 ago 2026
20°C ou menos
$469 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$854 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$383 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$728 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,516 Vol.
1%
25°C
$898 Vol.
3%
26°C
$2,561 Vol.
15%
27°C
$3,455 Vol.
55%
28°C
$3,113 Vol.
21%
29°C
$7,215 Vol.
9%
30°C ou mais
$2,423 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Moscow high of 27–28°C on August 1, supported by southerly advection of warmer air masses and light winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating under predominantly clear skies. These conditions align with the market's leading implied probabilities, where traders assign 55% odds to 27°C and 21% to 28°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of ensemble guidance. Historical August averages near 22–24°C provide baseline context, yet recent model runs show modest positive anomalies without the stronger ridging needed for 29°C or higher, which carries only 8.5% implied probability. Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$23,616Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Moscow high of 27–28°C on August 1, supported by southerly advection of warmer air masses and light winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating under predominantly clear skies. These conditions align with the market's leading implied probabilities, where traders assign 55% odds to 27°C and 21% to 28°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of ensemble guidance. Historical August averages near 22–24°C provide baseline context, yet recent model runs show modest positive anomalies without the stronger ridging needed for 29°C or higher, which carries only 8.5% implied probability. Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,616Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Moscow high of 27–28°C on August 1, supported by southerly advection of warmer air masses and light winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating under predominantly clear skies. These conditions align with the market's leading implied probabilities, where traders assign 55% odds to 27°C and 21% to 28°C, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of ensemble guidance. Historical August averages near 22–24°C provide baseline context, yet recent model runs show modest positive anomalies without the stronger ridging needed for 29°C or higher, which carries only 8.5% implied probability. Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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