Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 1 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 1 de agosto?
38°C 64%
39°C 34%
40°C 4.0%
37°C 3%
NOVO
$30,080 Vol.
NOVO
$30,080 Vol.
1 ago 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
64%
39°C
34%
40°C
4%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 64%
39°C 34%
40°C 4.0%
37°C 3%
NOVO
$30,080 Vol.
NOVO
$30,080 Vol.
1 ago 2026
34°C or below
$494 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$530 Vol.
1%
37°C
$10,221 Vol.
3%
38°C
$5,932 Vol.
64%
39°C
$5,111 Vol.
34%
40°C
$3,841 Vol.
4%
41°C
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$827 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$430 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$30,080Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,080Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions