Traders are concentrating on 37–38°C as the most probable peak for Chongqing on August 1 because long-term August climatology places normal daily maxima near 33–35°C, while persistent high-pressure ridges and the city’s mountainous basin topography commonly add several degrees through subsidence warming and limited ventilation. High humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon regime further elevates the heat index and slows nocturnal cooling, pushing afternoon readings into the upper 30s when skies remain mostly clear. Recent model guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and regional ensembles shows consensus around 37°C, with only modest spread from possible isolated thunderstorms or slight steering-flow variations that could either cap temperatures near 36°C or allow brief spikes toward 39°C. Historical late-July/early-August outliers above 40°C remain rare but are acknowledged in the thin tail probabilities, keeping the market centered on the two most likely bins pending the final official observation.