The Central Bank of Colombia’s September 30 decision carries a 92% market-implied probability of no change, leaving the policy rate at its current 12% level, as persistent headline inflation near 6.0% in July and expectations around 6.5% for year-end 2026 keep the board focused on maintaining a restrictive stance well above the 2-4% target. Recent holds in July, supported by peso appreciation that has eased imported price pressures and a real policy rate estimated at 5-6%, have reinforced trader consensus that further tightening is unnecessary while data-dependent guidance remains in place. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook, projecting stability through December absent fresh shocks. A material upside surprise in upcoming CPI prints or intensified El Niño-related supply disruptions could still tilt the board toward a 25-50 basis point hike, though the current inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience make such a shift unlikely without sustained acceleration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem alteração 92%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 5.1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 3.9%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 1.0%
$27,141 Vol.
$27,141 Vol.
29 set 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
1%
Sem alteração
92%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
5%
Sem alteração 92%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base 5.1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 3.9%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 1.0%
$27,141 Vol.
$27,141 Vol.
29 set 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$1,606 Vol.
1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$1,170 Vol.
1%
Sem alteração
$11,996 Vol.
92%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$9,710 Vol.
4%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$2,659 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Colombia’s September 30 decision carries a 92% market-implied probability of no change, leaving the policy rate at its current 12% level, as persistent headline inflation near 6.0% in July and expectations around 6.5% for year-end 2026 keep the board focused on maintaining a restrictive stance well above the 2-4% target. Recent holds in July, supported by peso appreciation that has eased imported price pressures and a real policy rate estimated at 5-6%, have reinforced trader consensus that further tightening is unnecessary while data-dependent guidance remains in place. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook, projecting stability through December absent fresh shocks. A material upside surprise in upcoming CPI prints or intensified El Niño-related supply disruptions could still tilt the board toward a 25-50 basis point hike, though the current inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience make such a shift unlikely without sustained acceleration.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$27,141Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Colombia’s September 30 decision carries a 92% market-implied probability of no change, leaving the policy rate at its current 12% level, as persistent headline inflation near 6.0% in July and expectations around 6.5% for year-end 2026 keep the board focused on maintaining a restrictive stance well above the 2-4% target. Recent holds in July, supported by peso appreciation that has eased imported price pressures and a real policy rate estimated at 5-6%, have reinforced trader consensus that further tightening is unnecessary while data-dependent guidance remains in place. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook, projecting stability through December absent fresh shocks. A material upside surprise in upcoming CPI prints or intensified El Niño-related supply disruptions could still tilt the board toward a 25-50 basis point hike, though the current inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience make such a shift unlikely without sustained acceleration.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$27,141Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Central Bank of Colombia’s September 30 decision carries a 92% market-implied probability of no change, leaving the policy rate at its current 12% level, as persistent headline inflation near 6.0% in July and expectations around 6.5% for year-end 2026 keep the board focused on maintaining a restrictive stance well above the 2-4% target. Recent holds in July, supported by peso appreciation that has eased imported price pressures and a real policy rate estimated at 5-6%, have reinforced trader consensus that further tightening is unnecessary while data-dependent guidance remains in place. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook, projecting stability through December absent fresh shocks. A material upside surprise in upcoming CPI prints or intensified El Niño-related supply disruptions could still tilt the board toward a 25-50 basis point hike, though the current inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience make such a shift unlikely without sustained acceleration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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