California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-03
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-03
$34,203 Vol.
$34,203 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$34,203 Vol.
$34,203 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$19,591 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$14,612 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$34,203Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,203Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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