California's 1st congressional district features Republican incumbent James Gallagher facing Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general election under boundaries redrawn by Proposition 50. The new lines shifted the seat toward stronger Democratic performance compared with prior maps, where Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election and prior Republican holds exceeded 60 percent. Primary results showed Gallagher and McGuire advancing as the top two finishers. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these structural changes and candidate positioning, though late shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign developments could still influence the final margin before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-01
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-01
$32,290 Vol.
$32,290 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$32,290 Vol.
$32,290 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$23,568 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$8,722 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district features Republican incumbent James Gallagher facing Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general election under boundaries redrawn by Proposition 50. The new lines shifted the seat toward stronger Democratic performance compared with prior maps, where Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election and prior Republican holds exceeded 60 percent. Primary results showed Gallagher and McGuire advancing as the top two finishers. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these structural changes and candidate positioning, though late shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign developments could still influence the final margin before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,290Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district features Republican incumbent James Gallagher facing Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general election under boundaries redrawn by Proposition 50. The new lines shifted the seat toward stronger Democratic performance compared with prior maps, where Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election and prior Republican holds exceeded 60 percent. Primary results showed Gallagher and McGuire advancing as the top two finishers. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these structural changes and candidate positioning, though late shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign developments could still influence the final margin before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,290Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 1st congressional district features Republican incumbent James Gallagher facing Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire in the November 2026 general election under boundaries redrawn by Proposition 50. The new lines shifted the seat toward stronger Democratic performance compared with prior maps, where Gallagher secured the June 2026 special election and prior Republican holds exceeded 60 percent. Primary results showed Gallagher and McGuire advancing as the top two finishers. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these structural changes and candidate positioning, though late shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected campaign developments could still influence the final margin before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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