Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJerônimo Rodrigues 55%
ACM Neto 46%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$117,304 Vol.
$117,304 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
55%
ACM Neto
46%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 55%
ACM Neto 46%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$117,304 Vol.
$117,304 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$37,118 Vol.
55%
ACM Neto
$40,237 Vol.
46%
Kleber Rosa
$12,792 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,899 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$117,304Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$117,304Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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