Persistent Houthi attacks, a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. Data through late August 2026 show daily crossings frequently ranging 30–40, with weekly aggregates near 250–270 and notable shares of dark or shadow-fleet movements amid ongoing Red Sea threats tied to the broader Iran conflict. These dynamics have compressed the 7-day moving average toward the 25–29 band, aligning with the 70% market-implied probability, while the 24% weighting on sub-25 reflects trader caution over further escalation or carrier pauses. Elevated freight rates and Cape rerouting continue to weigh on compliant traffic, with resolution hinging on any de-escalation signals or fresh incidents near month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
Nº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
25-29 70%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.3%
30-34 <1%
$37,825 Vol.
$37,825 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
24%
25-29
70%
30-34
<1%
35-39
1%
40+
<1%
25-29 70%
<25 20.0%
35-39 1.3%
30-34 <1%
$37,825 Vol.
$37,825 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$7,697 Vol.
24%
25-29
$9,387 Vol.
70%
30-34
$8,870 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$5,375 Vol.
1%
40+
$6,497 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks, a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. Data through late August 2026 show daily crossings frequently ranging 30–40, with weekly aggregates near 250–270 and notable shares of dark or shadow-fleet movements amid ongoing Red Sea threats tied to the broader Iran conflict. These dynamics have compressed the 7-day moving average toward the 25–29 band, aligning with the 70% market-implied probability, while the 24% weighting on sub-25 reflects trader caution over further escalation or carrier pauses. Elevated freight rates and Cape rerouting continue to weigh on compliant traffic, with resolution hinging on any de-escalation signals or fresh incidents near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$37,825Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks, a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. Data through late August 2026 show daily crossings frequently ranging 30–40, with weekly aggregates near 250–270 and notable shares of dark or shadow-fleet movements amid ongoing Red Sea threats tied to the broader Iran conflict. These dynamics have compressed the 7-day moving average toward the 25–29 band, aligning with the 70% market-implied probability, while the 24% weighting on sub-25 reflects trader caution over further escalation or carrier pauses. Elevated freight rates and Cape rerouting continue to weigh on compliant traffic, with resolution hinging on any de-escalation signals or fresh incidents near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$37,825Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks, a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits materially below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. Data through late August 2026 show daily crossings frequently ranging 30–40, with weekly aggregates near 250–270 and notable shares of dark or shadow-fleet movements amid ongoing Red Sea threats tied to the broader Iran conflict. These dynamics have compressed the 7-day moving average toward the 25–29 band, aligning with the 70% market-implied probability, while the 24% weighting on sub-25 reflects trader caution over further escalation or carrier pauses. Elevated freight rates and Cape rerouting continue to weigh on compliant traffic, with resolution hinging on any de-escalation signals or fresh incidents near month-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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