Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best AI Lab end of September?
Second-best AI Lab end of September?
Google 38%
OpenAI 21.6%
Anthropic 13.3%
Meta 4.7%
$79,046 Wol.
$79,046 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
38%
OpenAI
22%
Anthropic
13%
Meta
5%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 38%
OpenAI 21.6%
Anthropic 13.3%
Meta 4.7%
$79,046 Wol.
$79,046 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
$19,318 Wol.
38%
OpenAI
$6,248 Wol.
22%
Anthropic
$4,509 Wol.
13%
Meta
$7,825 Wol.
5%
Alibaba
$14,169 Wol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,377 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,990 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,988 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$2,105 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,680 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,425 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,113 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$79,046Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$79,046Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent frontier model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by month-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout emphasized agentic coding, computer use, and cybersecurity gains, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 updates delivered benchmark jumps in terminal tasks and cost efficiencies. Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash series, including a Cyber variant, targets enterprise agentic workflows and vulnerability detection, leveraging its infrastructure scale. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 adds multimodal reasoning depth. These launches, alongside persistent Chinese lab progress on open-weight models, create closely matched implied probabilities around 25-39% for top contenders, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty over which lab’s capabilities and ecosystem traction will pull ahead by resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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