The near-50% probabilities across Meta, Google, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs underscore a tightly contested race for second place behind the current leader, driven by rapid iteration on frontier large language models. As of July 2026, benchmarks show minimal gaps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance among GPT-5 variants, Claude Opus/Fable releases, Gemini updates, and open-weight contenders like Llama 4, with leaderboards shifting weekly on metrics such as GPQA and SWE-bench. Differentiators include training compute access, product integrations, developer ecosystem strength, and regulatory positioning, though no lab has sustained a decisive edge. Upcoming model drops or capability demonstrations through September could quickly realign trader consensus in this fluid environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best AI Lab end of September?
Second-best AI Lab end of September?
Nvidia 32%
Moonshot 31%
Microsoft 31%
Thinky 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
Nvidia
32%
Moonshot
31%
Microsoft
31%
Thinky
29%
Amazon
28%
StepFun
28%
SpaceXAI
23%
Meituan
23%
ByteDance
22%
Meta
22%
Z.ai
22%
22%
Alibaba
22%
Baidu
22%
OpenAI
21%
Tencent
21%
MiniMax
20%
DeepSeek
19%
Xiaomi
18%
Anthropic
15%
Mistral
22%
Nvidia 32%
Moonshot 31%
Microsoft 31%
Thinky 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
Nvidia
$47 Wol.
32%
Moonshot
$47 Wol.
31%
Microsoft
$72 Wol.
31%
Thinky
$47 Wol.
29%
Amazon
$49 Wol.
28%
StepFun
$49 Wol.
28%
SpaceXAI
$47 Wol.
23%
Meituan
$47 Wol.
23%
ByteDance
$47 Wol.
22%
Meta
$47 Wol.
22%
Z.ai
$47 Wol.
22%
$47 Wol.
22%
Alibaba
$47 Wol.
22%
Baidu
$47 Wol.
22%
OpenAI
$47 Wol.
21%
Tencent
$47 Wol.
21%
MiniMax
$47 Wol.
20%
DeepSeek
$47 Wol.
19%
Xiaomi
$47 Wol.
18%
Anthropic
$47 Wol.
15%
Mistral
$47 Wol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The near-50% probabilities across Meta, Google, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs underscore a tightly contested race for second place behind the current leader, driven by rapid iteration on frontier large language models. As of July 2026, benchmarks show minimal gaps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance among GPT-5 variants, Claude Opus/Fable releases, Gemini updates, and open-weight contenders like Llama 4, with leaderboards shifting weekly on metrics such as GPQA and SWE-bench. Differentiators include training compute access, product integrations, developer ecosystem strength, and regulatory positioning, though no lab has sustained a decisive edge. Upcoming model drops or capability demonstrations through September could quickly realign trader consensus in this fluid environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,009Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The near-50% probabilities across Meta, Google, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs underscore a tightly contested race for second place behind the current leader, driven by rapid iteration on frontier large language models. As of July 2026, benchmarks show minimal gaps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance among GPT-5 variants, Claude Opus/Fable releases, Gemini updates, and open-weight contenders like Llama 4, with leaderboards shifting weekly on metrics such as GPQA and SWE-bench. Differentiators include training compute access, product integrations, developer ecosystem strength, and regulatory positioning, though no lab has sustained a decisive edge. Upcoming model drops or capability demonstrations through September could quickly realign trader consensus in this fluid environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$1,009Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-50% probabilities across Meta, Google, OpenAI, and several Chinese labs underscore a tightly contested race for second place behind the current leader, driven by rapid iteration on frontier large language models. As of July 2026, benchmarks show minimal gaps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance among GPT-5 variants, Claude Opus/Fable releases, Gemini updates, and open-weight contenders like Llama 4, with leaderboards shifting weekly on metrics such as GPQA and SWE-bench. Differentiators include training compute access, product integrations, developer ecosystem strength, and regulatory positioning, though no lab has sustained a decisive edge. Upcoming model drops or capability demonstrations through September could quickly realign trader consensus in this fluid environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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