**Magdalena Andersson leads the market at 78.5% because consistent polling shows her Social Democrats and the centre-left bloc ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election.** Recent surveys from firms including Verian, Demoskop, and Novus place the opposition at roughly 50–54% combined support versus 43–47% for the government bloc, giving the left a projected majority of seats in the Riksdag. Andersson’s party remains the largest single force, typically polling near 29–32%. Kristersson’s position at 20.5% reflects the coalition’s narrower path, including reliance on Sweden Democrats support and the Liberals’ persistent risk of falling below the 4% threshold. The Center Party’s June statement ruling out Kristersson and identifying Andersson as its most likely partner has further consolidated trader expectations around a left-leaning government. Late-campaign tightening in August and early September polls has kept some probability on Kristersson, but no development has reversed the overall bloc advantage. Other listed candidates remain below 1% as their parties lack realistic routes to the premiership under current polling.