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icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolityka·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolityka·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

Netanyahu - Israel PM 40%

None before 2027 37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 4.8%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,901 Wol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM 40%

None before 2027 37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 4.8%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 4.1%

Polymarket

$264,901 Wol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$29,096 Wol.

40%

None before 2027

$87,922 Wol.

37%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$12,360 Wol.

5%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,188 Wol.

4%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$7,405 Wol.

3%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$6,649 Wol.

2%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,105 Wol.

2%

Macron - France President

$9,989 Wol.

2%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$6,523 Wol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$5,243 Wol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$9,114 Wol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$7,327 Wol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$6,377 Wol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$5,676 Wol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$5,436 Wol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$6,835 Wol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$4,953 Wol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$6,530 Wol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$7,918 Wol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$4,632 Wol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$6,737 Wol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$6,885 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the highest implied probability of being the first listed leader to leave office before 2027, driven by October 27 elections where his coalition trails in polls amid public dissatisfaction with ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, plus persistent corruption charges and friction with U.S. diplomacy. The near-even split with “None before 2027” reflects uncertainty over whether opposition forces can assemble a majority quickly enough to force his exit this year, or if negotiations and legal proceedings extend his tenure. Most other contenders remain stable given entrenched positions, term structures, or lack of imminent electoral or institutional pressure, though any rapid Israeli government formation or surprise coalition shift could widen the gap before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$264,901
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the highest implied probability of being the first listed leader to leave office before 2027, driven by October 27 elections where his coalition trails in polls amid public dissatisfaction with ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, plus persistent corruption charges and friction with U.S. diplomacy. The near-even split with “None before 2027” reflects uncertainty over whether opposition forces can assemble a majority quickly enough to force his exit this year, or if negotiations and legal proceedings extend his tenure. Most other contenders remain stable given entrenched positions, term structures, or lack of imminent electoral or institutional pressure, though any rapid Israeli government formation or surprise coalition shift could widen the gap before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$264,901
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 22 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Netanyahu - Israel PM" z 40%, za nim "None before 2027" z 37%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 40¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 40% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" wygenerował $264.9K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jun 30, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)", przeglądaj 22 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" jest "Netanyahu - Israel PM" z 40%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 40% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "None before 2027" z 37%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.